RESEARCH IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS AND FINANCE
Credit Efficiency: Another Early Warning Indicator for Systemic Risk
with Chenyao Tang
Abstract. Credit booms may either precede financial crises or support economic growth. The paper develops credit efficiency—the ratio of output to private credit—as an early-warning indicator grounded in Keynesian and Minskyan mechanisms. The measure helps distinguish productive credit expansions from the accumulation of systemic vulnerabilities and improves the identification of harmful credit booms.
Resources. Presentation slides · Journal article.